Dynamics Ax and the cloud - Part 2

In the last blog post we talked about Dynamics Ax and the cloud.  And the fact that Microsoft's latest release of Dynamics Ax, Ax 2012, is not the cloud version (some hoped for).  Is it a sign?  Should we be unhappy about that?

Microsoft already has some cloud solutions up and running, focussed on business users.  With Office 365, CRM 2011 for example.   With  varying degrees of success, on all levels.
Take availibility for example: Customers of Microsoft’s Business Productivity Online Services (BPOS), with hosted Exchange and Sharepoint solutions, had to work without mail for a few days after a MS upgrade mid 2011.  In August 2011, it was MS CRM 2011 and Office 365 which suffered from outages. And again.
Every IT department has to deal with downtime one time or another.  But when an IT department serves thousands of customers with an online solution, it's high profile, big news.  And Microsoft can hopefully learn from these experiences and improve them, for an Ax cloud release later.

Another level where Microsoft has not reached the desired success (yet) is the propagation of their cloud solution platform.
Microsoft Azure platform has been around for some time now.  And strangely enough, the critics are more or less aligned on this one: A good solid offering, but MS did a bad job on marketing it.  And that's strange for a company like MS, as that has always been one of their key strengths in the past.

But it should be clear that even with recent takeovers from competitors SAP and Oracle this does not mean that Microsoft is running behind, on the contrary.  Microsoft has put its pawns on the chessboard and is (almost) ready to play.

And what about any other players than the big three? 

Google, the household name when it comes to the cloud, isn't free from glitches either.  It would also be interesting to see if they can increase the acceptance of their business solutions with business users as well.  Google depends heavily on their advertising model.  For that, they go through everything you do on the internet: all your searches, all your mail, ...
How is Google going to convince companies that their business critical data is stored safe with them?

Maybe the real threat comes from another familiar name, albeit maybe a bit unexpected here: Amazon.
Amazon, still a relatively young company, made it from an online book store to a software company.
While Amazon did not escape the run of outages in 2011, at least they communicated clearly about them.  Always.
They seem to understand the need of information of the users in such cases, in order to uphold confidence of the community in their solution.

When Denmark based ProISV, a software developer focussed on ISV's (Independent Software Vendors), released their Ax Cloud solution, they made the link with Amazon.  (Betting on two horses actually, as they also work with MS Azure.)

Maybe IBM can become an important player here.  They have the servers and infrastructure experience, they have made the transition to a services company as well.

Conclusion
The software business is on the move, to the cloud.  We gonna see lots of announcements and news stories focussing on ERP in the cloud in 2012, without doubt. 
As details of the next major release of Dynamics Ax (version 7.0, post Ax 2012) will gradually become available in 2012, it will also be exciting times for Ax customers.

Did Dynamics Ax already make it to the cloud?

SAP is the latest to jump on the cloud bandwagon with their aquisition of SuccessFactors, an established player in cloud offerings.  First weekend of December 2011 it was announced that the deal was worth $3.4 billion, not a minor expense.  Last October we saw this other big ERP player Oracle buy RightNow for $ 1.5 billion.  Earlier in October, Oracle unveiled Oracle Public Cloud. That's when they publicly entered the cloud arena, with an 'Enterprise cloud for your business' as Oracle states it.
You can argue whether they are all just hosting solutions or real cloud solutions.  But it's clear these contenders are more then willing to link their corporate names to the cloud.  Cloud isn't about consumers anymore, it's also about enterprises.

And what about Microsoft?  And Dynamics?  Where are they?

Well with Dynamics CRM 2011 already has a cloud offering for one member of the Dynamics family of products. When it was released January 2011 the online features were a key selling point.
Dynamics NAV 7 has been postponed once or twice.  Currently slated for Fall 2012, it expects to be  run on the Azure platform.  And the client to be a webbrowser, whether NAV is running on premise or in the cloud.

At Convergence 2011 in Atlanta, Steve Ballmer already announced all members of the Dynamics family are or will be engineered to "deliver the full benefits of the cloud".  And that's with focus on Azure, Microsoft's cloud development platform.

And the recently released Dynamics Ax 2012, is that a cloud version?  The answer is 'no'. 
During the virtual launch event in August 2011 Hal Howard, corporate VP of ERP at Microsoft, already stated that Ax 7, not AX 6 will be the first real Ax cloud offering.  He repeated that statement in his keynote at the Dynamics Ax 2011 Technical Conference in Nice. 
So Ax is not the first, not even the second to make it to the cloud.

Should Ax customers and MS partners be unhappy about that?  More about that in the next blog post.

Bill Gates invests in cloud technology

If you are following the active dicsussion wether cloud technology will see its breakthrough in 2010, you will be interested to know that Microsoft founder Bill Gates is also investing in cloud technology. Only with a different twist.
The former chairman of Microsoft is funding research in order to actually create clouds up in the air, made up of sea water. The goal is to cool our planet, also known as geoengineering. You can read more about it over here.

The Cloud

You've heard about it. You've read about it.
Maybe you've worked with it. Or only had a short test drive with it.

What am I talking about? The cloud.

Or to be more precise: Microsoft's offering for the cloud. What's in?

Over at ZDNet, they do not believe in Microsoft as a serious cloud contender. A very critical voice is heard on Microsoft's cloud offering in this article, titled 'Why Microsoft really, really, hates the cloud'.
Summing it up: In 5 years Microsoft's operating income will drop by 75 %. Because it cannot adapt to the changing IT environment.

My opinion, for what it is worth: A bit over simplified reasoning in this article.

Will we see a move to cloud based applications: Absolutely. Your communications will be without doubt cloud based. Email only being one of them.
Your basic word processing, spreadsheet functions will be cloud based. I can dig that. Image, audio and video management, sure.
But your business critical applications like an ERP system? I don't think so. Partially maybe.
Small companies (-25 employees) will be interested. But anything above that?

I also do not see a reason on why Microsoft cannot adapt and change it's income pattern (that's without doubt needed). But are Cisco or IBM better positioned then Microsoft in this area then?

Microsoft is not postponing the arrival of Cloud Computing as stated in the article at ZDNet. It's just gearing up things and when and where there is money to be made with the Cloud, Microsoft will be around.
Remember the spread sheet. Lotus 1-2-3 was once number one. And the word processor, with WordPerfect. Or the internet browser.
Maybe this time around Microsoft's rival isn't another software company.